Shares of IndiGo parent Interglobe Aviation plunged over 12 percent on October 28 after the airline reported a net loss of Rs 987 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2024 compared to a net profit of Rs 189 crore in the year-ago period. 

Kotak Institutional Equities has issued a 'buy' call on IndiGo, setting a target price of Rs 5,200 per share. The brokerage noted a sharp miss in the second quarter's profit before tax (PBT), primarily due to aircraft groundings, related compensation, and unexpected fuel inflation. 

Despite these challenges, overall demand trends for IndiGo remain healthy, although there was a modest decline in the revenue per available seat kilometer (TRASK) due to a high year-on-year base for the third quarter, said the brokerage. As a result, Kotak has lowered its FY27 estimate by 10 percent. 

Goldman Sachs has also issued a 'buy' call on IndiGo but has adjusted its target price to Rs 4,800 per share. The brokerage pointed out that the company's second quarter earnings per share (EPS) and profit before tax (PBT), excluding foreign exchange impacts, fell below estimates. 

IndiGo's yields exceeded estimates by 2.5 percent, driving a revenue beat. However, the cost per available seat kilometer (CASK) was higher than anticipated, attributed to increased fuel and lease expenses. Aircraft groundings remained stable in the mid-70s range, with signs of improvement, it noted. 

Meanwhile, Nuvama has turned bearish on the counter. Following a 108–133 percent outperformance to US/European peers since January 2022, the brokerage downgraded IndiGo to 'hold' on 1.5x+ valuations to global peers and valuation premium to global LCCs ~2SD above average, slowing domestic demand and overcapacity concerns. 

According to analysts, IndiGo's Sep-Nov’24 flight schedules imply a domestic share loss as well. Relentless promoter selling while IndiGo shifts from LCC to a hybrid model raises risk, the brokerage flagged while cutting FY25 and FY26 EBITDAR estimates by 14 percent and 7 percent respectively, and slashing target price to Rs 4,415.