China panics: As a warning, the navy simultaneously displays 3 missile submarines.

Summary and Main Ideas: Given how historically action-packed the past 12 years have been, 2010 feels like a different period. Since then there have been global pandemics, economic collapses, populist revolutions and major geopolitical events. In 2010, when Obama signed “Obamacare”, US troops remained in Afghanistan and Iraq. China, however, was becoming a major power with its rapid naval buildup. In response, the United States demonstrated its naval might by surfacing three Ohio-class submarines in 2010. With one of the largest fleets in the world today, China’s priority is to balance the growing Pacific region. Enmity

China’s Naval Rise and the U.S. Response: A 2010 Retrospective

The year 2010 feels like a long, long time ago. Today, when the news cycle is seemingly instantaneous – leaving citizens with the impression that more is actually happening – the 12 years that have passed since 2010 feel historically action-packed, making 2010 feel like some other epoch. 

Many things happened. Economic recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The worldwide popular upheaval that led to the Brexit decision in the UK and the elections of Bolsonaro, Orbán and Trump. The World Series was won by the Chicago Cubs. America left Afghanistan. Russians attacked Ukraine. ISIS, MeToo, Libya, Occupy Wall Street and Crimea.

Looking at the Past

When this happened in 2010, President Obama was completing his first term. Obama’s signature accomplishment, the technocratic Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010, known as “Obamacare,” was completed in March. US troops remain in Afghanistan and Iraq. Another two years would pass before the “pivot to Asia” took place.

However, the June 2010 incident served as further evidence that problems were brewing in the Pacific. It is now inevitably difficult to ignore China. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States faced its first major adversary in the form of regional hegemony in Northeast Asia as the world’s most populous country began to reach its incredible potential.

John Mearsheimer stated in his ground-breaking 2001 book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics that “China is the key to understanding the future distribution of power in Northeast Asia.” China has the potential to surpass both Japan and the US in terms of wealth due to its population size. To illustrate China’s potential, consider the following scenario.

China’s GDP per capita is currently 40 times less than Japan’s. China’s GNP would be $10.66 trillion, far larger than Japan’s $4.09 trillion, if it modernized, and about the same as South Korea’s GNP per capita. If China’s GDP per capita grows to half of Japan’s current GDP per capita, would have a GNP of $20.04 trillion, which would make China almost five times as wealthy as Japan.”

Comparing China to the United States is another way to show how strong its economy can become if it continues to grow rapidly. In 2001, the gross national product of the United States was $7.9 trillion. China’s total GNP would be over $10.66 trillion, or 1.35 times that of the US, if its per capita GNP were the same as Korea’s. Nevertheless, the Bush 43 administration started two wars in the Middle East, draining resources and directly interfering with the more important task of balancing China. This was done despite China’s unparalleled capabilities.

Pivot from Trade With China to Defense

Obama was to be more aware of China than his predecessor. And with good reason. China was the only country with the potential to become a rival great power. China’s capabilities and ambitions are particularly evident in the maritime domain, where the country has built the largest naval force in contemporary history.

China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has more than 100 naval platforms available as of 2000. By 2005 the PLAN’s force size had grown to over 200 naval platforms. “The PRC’s attempts to forcibly annex Taiwan, other sovereignty disputes, settle in its favor. Establish the territory as an exception to international laws and norms, and this tsunami of Chinese shipbuilding could greatly affect Beijing’s power and influence globally,” maritime-executive.com has said.

In June 2010 amid China’s shipbuilding craze, the United States decided to send a clear message to Beijing: “America still controls the seas.” Three Ohio-class submarines in Subic Bay, Philippines acted as messengers for the message.

The Ohio is a ballistic missile-firing nuclear-powered submarine. With the capacity to carry 24 Trident II missiles, the Ohio is the third largest submarine range in the world. China got a clear message when three Ohio submarines carrying a total of 72 ballistic missiles arrived in the Indo-Pacific.

Still, China has continued to build ships in the years since the Ohio disaster. According to maritime-executive.com, “China’s navy crossed a critical threshold sometime between 2015 and 2020: it builds more warships than the US Navy, making it numerically the world’s largest navy.” “It now has sixty more warships than its American rival, with about 360 hulls.”

The Biden administration should focus on China and the Pacific without being too distracted by issues related to Russia, because China has hegemonic capabilities and not despite Russia’s aggression.

About the Author: Harrison Kass

Harrison Cass is a pilot, lawyer, musician, and former minor league hockey player. He enlisted in the US Air Force as a pilot trainee but was later medically discharged from the service. Harrison holds degrees from New York University, the University of Oregon, and Lake Forest College. He listens to Dokken and lives in Oregon. Follow him on Twitter at @harrison_kass. During his career, Kass has written more than 1,000 articles on military and national security.

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